Corio – Australia 2025

That boundary between Corio and Lalor is just disrespectful… imagine living on one of those streets in Mambourin or Werribee that have been snipped off.

@nicholas i agree there is years of precedence in maintaining the border at the border of greater geelong. the same with melbourne and the yarra river.

Have no idea why Corio isn’t just restricted to Greater Geelong that contains Lara and of course metro Geelong. Sure if they want to expand into Golden Plains that’s fine but it’s not like Wyndham Vale/Werribee has been such a growth corridor that it warrants Little River and the Western side of Wyndham Vale council snipped off to make Corio bigger than it should be. I mean Lalor and Corangamite both look like fish cakes because it’s been snipped off whilst Corio just looks like a hodge podge overall with bits and bobs from Geelong, Golden Plains and Wyndham Vale.

@tommo i dont think the aec had any idea what they were doing this time around. they were in such a rush to get it don they just did the it the easiest possible way

This why an expansion of parliament is needed by 2031 election so we have better communities of interest.

Agreed 100% and a large expansion at that, so each seat is like 70k or less in electors

@nimalan i think it will be after the 2031 election tbh. i think vic may get a 39th seat after this election and hopefully they will fix it up then along with melbourne crossing the yarra.

@up the dragons doubtful. even if there were 200 seats there would still be around 90k electors and that wont even happen. the house only increases in proportion to the number of senators that being double. an expansion would likely add either 24 or 48 at most. for that to happen they would need to increase the senate by 2 or 4 senators per state.

– 150 seats: 119,411
– 160 seats: 111,948
– 170 seats: 105,363
– 180 seats: 99,510
– 190 seats: 94,272
– 200 seats: 89,559

70,000 electors would require around 255 seats.

@ John
I am more concerned about NSW than VIC. I feel some of the boundaries would be better if there was an expansion of parliament. I would prefer two seats for the Illawara. There can be a new seat that includes Wollondilly, Camden, Southern Highlands. I would prefer Hume to be a regional electorate and not go into suburban areas like Leppington. I would like all states to have atleast slightly more electorates than they did in 1984 for example 15 for SA and say 53 for NSW.

@ Nicholas, Do you how many electores they were on average in 1949 and 1984.

Another way to view it: If 24 seats are added, electorates would be 14% smaller. If 48 seats are added, each would be 24% smaller.

The formula for the proportional decrease in the number of electors per seat is:
1 – (150 / (150 + n))

…where n is the number of seats to add.

Those of you who are mathematically inclined will see that this is a hyperbola approaching 100% asymptotically.

For the less mathematically inclined, this means that adding a small number of seats will get you “good bang for your buck” in decreasing the size of electorates, but the decrease slows as you add more.

@nimalan unfortunately hume will nver go back in the regions. i tried to have it shed some of the urban areas of outer sydney and create a new seat aound there but the commision went the opposite way.

Parliament could realistically have up to 200 seats. I would support an increase of Parliament as long as federal electorates are larger than single-member state electorates (e.g NSW and Queensland both have 93 state seats each so they can’t have 93 federal seats each).

If there was an expansion of Parliament that would actually mean that in 2022 both parties would’ve gained seats from each other. For example, Gilmore is only Labor because of Kiama, but if there were a second Illawarra seat it would probably take in Shellharbour (which is the name for the southern part of Wollongong, not a separate city) and Kiama (which isn’t in Wollongong but rather a separate town) and surrounds. That alone would make Gilmore a Liberal seat.

@ John,
I think it depends on how many more seats NSW will get. Greater Sydney has 67% of NSW population in 1971 it was 65% so that share has not increased that much see link below. If there is an expansion of parliament to around 54 seats for NSW surely there will be maybe at least two new regional seats (one in the South and one in the North). I really want Gundagai to go into Hume. However, i do support your ideas to create a new seat in Outer Sydney that could also include parts of the Southern Highlands in Whitlam.

https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/50-years-capital-city-population-change#:~:text=Over%20the%20last%2050%20years,%2C%20from%2045%25%20to%2060%25

@ Nether Portal
I think all parties (Labor, Libs, Greens, Nats) benefit from an expansion of parliament. It will create new safe seats but new marginal ones as well. I think in NSW there will be a new NW sydney taking parts of Chifley/Greenway Lindsay, new SW Sydney seat, North Sydney resurrected, maybe two new regional seats, a safe Labor seat around Auburn/Olympic Park , a new Hunter Region seat. I think the second illawara seat will be Whitlam without Southern Highlands but taking some territory from Cunningham and Gilmore in the South.

My bad the share of Greater Sydney of NSW population only increased from 63.8% to 65% so only a 1.2% increase.

@Nimalan that marginal Labor seat made from Chifley, Greenway and Lindsay would traditionally be a highly competitive seat.

I think and expansion would also see the Hawkesbury get its own seat or perhaps a seat that includes both the Hawkesbury and the Central Coast Hinterland.

@ NP
I agree it would be competitive it would include places like Marsden Park, Coleebee, Schofields etc. It would make Chifley Super safe again. Werriwa may become stronger as it will be centered in the rail corridor and maybe include Liverpool CBD and Warwick Farm, but a a Liberal leaning seat can be created instead like the 2007 version of Macarthur. I think the will be two safe Coalition seats created in Regional NSW.

@ Nether Portal
As you grew up in Regional NSW, Do you support more regional NSW seats created?

@nimalan the rule is generally that the name stays with the bit that retins the higher amount of electors and since an increase to parliament would reduce the amount of electors per division hume would therefore shed electors and stay in sydney a new division would likely form between hume whitlam riverina and eden monaro

@ John
It was more about having an additional regional seat than the Name.

If parliamnet was to increase to the 200 seat mark (16 Senators per state and then add on) the Quote in Vicotria would be 87,081 its 52 seats. In otherwords each seat would lose about a thrid of its current enrollment

Tasmania would still have its 5 seats, as per the constitution but be entitled to 4.27 under the formula

@nimalan nsw would likely get about 9 seats. under a 2 senator increase. that would easily make some more regional seats given the deficeits in sydney and the surpluses in region nsw especially on the north and south coasts

@ John
That is good i am hoping a seat in Western NSW will be created maybe like the Old Gwydir.

@nimalan not in western nsw got little to hope there. parkes would contract a bit and likely take in parts of western farrer so new england would shift westards and lose likely muswellbrook and maybe parts of upper hunter. all the north cost seats would shift north so id say the new seat would likely look like the old hunter before charlton was abolished.

@ John
How many additional seats could the Nats get in NSW?

@ John under a 14 Senator system, NS, on todays figures would get 7.9 quots, so i would guess NSW would end up with 54 seats adn 63 under a 16 Sentors per state system

I think the most logical expansion currently is to go from 6 to 8 senators elected per half election, per state, that gives you a total of 96 state senators and allow close to 200 House MP’s, Parliament hasn’t expanded since 1984 and the population has increased from 15.5 million to 26.6 million in that time so it seems a fairly substantial expansion should follow.

@nimalan I’d imagine at least 2. The seat John mentioned in the Hunter and one based in the southern highlands.

I’ve been meaning to share some maps I put together a few weeks ago showing how New South Wales might look with a 54 seat allocation.

In some cases it isn’t obvious which is the new seat and which is the continuation of a current seat, but essentially, the 8 new seats would potentially be based on:
1. Port Macquarie
2. Lake Macquarie (like the old Charlton)
3. the Hume Highway corridor (like the old Hume)
4. Badgerys Creek, Camden & Leppington (like many of the recent proposals for a Bird-Walton division)
5. central Liverpool
6. central Blacktown
7. former Canterbury council area
8. plus a preserved North Sydney

I’ll upload the maps when I get a chance.

Thanks Darth Vadar
@ Angas, look forward to it. If you could just give names to the new seats in your map. You can just use a geographic name if you cannot think of any and just keep existing names it will be easy to visualise that way.

Back to Corio, the boundary with Lalor is definitely one of the more disappointing outcomes of the redistribution.

Despite a number of submissions making a strong case to change it, there was essentially no discussion of this in the final report. All that was said is “the boundary of the Division of Lalor will remain as proposed by the Redistribution Committee, with the western section following identifiable locality and road boundaries”. Which is strange as the SA1 boundaries used end up splitting all of Mambourin/Manor Lakes/Werribee/Wyndham Vale. Not much point uniting Little River in one division (which was completely reasonable) only to cut all these up.

That said, largely a moot point as Corio and Lalor are solidly Labor either way, but somewhat frustrating for the currently 500 or so Wyndham electors that have an MP based in Geelong instead of Werribee. How many electors will it be once the boundaries are reviewed again?

Funny that Corio is now larger than Corangamite though.

Darth Vader,
Neither of your suggestions would be National Party seats.
There is no National Party support base in Southern Highlands.
It is also unlikely that the National Party would win a seat in the Hunter valley.
In 1984, when the Parliament was last expanded, the former safe National Party seat of Paterson was abolished. The abolished seat of Paterson included Maitland and extended up the valley to include Singleton and Muswellbrook. IIRC, Maitland was moved into Newcastle, and the rest of Paterson went into Hunter. The National Party believed they would win Hunter in 1984. They still haven’t been able to win Hunter and have only outpolled the Liberal Party on one occasion (1987).

Watson, I note that you bring up a lot of historical examples which may not be relevant in the present day. Demographic change in rural areas (including Singleton and Muswellbrook) will mean the Nationals are favoured to win going forward instead of Labor.

This effect is even seen in Queensland, which saw the LNP win Mackay and Rockhampton (albeit as open seats)
in 2024. It was the first time ever that the party had won those seats, given that they failed to win them in the landslide 2012 election.

@ Yon An
Agree it may take some De-Industrialization first such as Coal declining around Singleton and Muswellbrook a bit like what happened in the La Trobe Valley and Lithgow. The issue is Hunter Valley Coal is exported so Labor had a better chance to survive for a bit longer.

Yoh An,
The demographic change in Muswellbrook and Singleton has been very clear. The area has changed from safe coalition to marginal Labor. The state seat of Upper Hunter, which takes in this area, used to be one of the safest coalition seats in NSW – it was next to Vaucluse on the electoral pendulum. Upper Hunter is now a very marginal seat. Maitland, where most of the Hunter valley population growth is occurring, used to be a safe Liberal Party seat. It is now a safe Labor seat.

Why do you believe the demographic change will be suddenly reversed?
A new wave of soldier settler dairy farms, accompanied by milk quotas to make them viable?
The dairy industry was deregulated in 2000 with the support of the National Party. That horse isn’t favourite – it bolted, was caught and sent to the knackery.

For Ben’s sake, I’ve shared my maps over on the NSW Redistribution thread so this discussion doesn’t get too off-topic:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/56992/comment-page-1#comment-826462

@Nimalan
I didn’t end up naming the new divisions in this instance, but I hope they are marked clearly enough on the map. Would be interested to hear if you have any suggestions for these.

@ Angas, Some names
1. Lang (Jack Lang) New Canterbury Council Seat
2. Perkins (Charles Perkins) new Blacktown seat
3. Lawson (Henry Lawson)-new regional seat in Southern NSW
4. Einfield (Syd Einfeld)-Hunter region seat
5. Bird Walton- New SW Sydney seat.

6. Mundey (Jack Mundey-unionist and famous for green bans)-port Macquarie seat

Nimalan,
I don’t understand your fascination with coal its relationship to Labor in seats which Labor has rarely, if ever won. Or alternatively the seats which Labor have held but have never had any coal mines.
Example 1:
La Trobe Valley in Victoria. Coal mining commenced around 1880.
From what I can determine, the first time Labor won a seat in that vicinity was Morwell in 1970 – 90 years after Coal mining commenced.
The next seat state seat Labor won in Narracan in 1999. I assume this was related to rural swing which removed Kennett rather than coal.
Labor’s loss of these seats was related to timber harvesting and milling, not coal mining. The big issue in Morwell in 2022 was the imminent closure of the paper mill due timber from native forests being destroyed in bushfires.

The first time Labor won a federal seat in that area was McMillan in 1980.
A century after coal mining commenced. The success candidate was Barry Cunningham – a local dairy and potato farmer.

example 2: NSW Southern Highlands
Coal mining first commenced in 1867. The seat of Wollondilly was first won by Labor in 1978 – more than a century later.
example 3: Upper Hunter NSW
Lots of coal mining. The only time Labor has won this seat was a 1910 by-election and lost it again at the general election in the same year.

By the way, I have no connections to coal mining or related industries. Also, as previously stated many times, I do not belong to any political party and have never belonged to a party with Labor, or Labour, in its name.

@ Watson Watch
Fair point, sometimes it is just demographic change. For example once Kennett privatized the La Trobe valley power stations the number of people working in electricity generation declined. That is not Labor’s fault but it is a demographic change. Again, around Lithgow amonunt of Coal mined has declined and both state seat of Bathurst and Calare have shifted right. It does not mean Labor did anything wrong it is just a demographic shift with fewer unionised workers.

Hey guys this has veered pretty far off topic. I know I don’t have any active comments threads on this topic but we’re nowhere near a conversation about Corio.

If you want to be chat about any election-related topics without needing a post from me to prompt it, there is a Discord for $5 members.

@Angas

Is the number of Corio electors within Wyndham really only in the hundreds? Surely in that case the committee could have easily avoided Corio expanding into Wyndham, or at least beyond Little River. Maybe the projected numbers are significant.

And yes, it is weird to see Corio the larger of the two Geelong electorates.

Nimalan,
Thanks for the response.
A couple of observations.
1. You appear to be assuming current electoral boundaries are the same as historical boundaries for an electorate.
2. You are also appear to incorrectly assume that Labor voters are trade unionists. Having grown up in a rural area, it was pretty obvious that much of Labor’s support came from small business owners.

Calare is named after the Lachlan River which flows through the town of Forbes. Previously it had been call Canobolas after a mountain near the town of Orange. Prior to the abolition of the rural weighting in 1977, Bathurst and Lithgow were in Macquarie along with the Blue Mountains and sometimes Penrith.

Lithgow was in the state seat of Hartley which was renamed Blue Mountains in 1968. The Liberal Party’s Harold Coates won Hartley in 1965 and was defeated in 1978. He pretended to be an independent in the same way as the current member for Bathurst.
The rural weighting was removed in NSW in 1981. Lithgow was transferred from Blue Mountains to Bathurst. The Labor candidate was only able to defeat the sitting member by 31 votes.

I will post further comments in the Bathurst and Calare threads.

@Nicholas
It’s quite possible that the projected electors are underestimated, but by the numbers there’s only 640 initial and 758 projected electors in total:
– 216 initial and 220 projected (1.9% growth) in Werribee – West SA1 #2146808 (the Little River township)
– 424 initial and 538 projected (26.9% growth) in Werribee – West SA1 #2146843A (the rest of Little River and arbitrary parts of Mambourin and Werribee)
– plus 0 electors in Cocoroc

Given that Lalor had to lose more than Point Cook, Truganina and Williams Landing, some compromise had to be made. It seems the committee was unwilling to bring Gellibrand west of Skeleton Creek and into Tarneit, even though the currently existing boundary between the state districts of Laverton and Tarneit provided a suitable way of doing this. Perhaps it was lost in the noise of all the submissions regarding Higgins and Wills.

With Wyndham continuing to grow at a fast rate, the area around Tarneit station is eventually going to have to be removed from Lalor anyway. I certainly hope they don’t continue to add parts of Wyndham into Corio.

@Nimalan
Great suggestions!

@Watson well for starters there must be since the nats contested Whitlam which was partially based in southern highlands. Secondly the nats have come exceedingly close to winning Hunter a number of times. So…

@nimalan I’d oppose all but Lawson and Walton. Jack Mundey was a communist. No way you’d get support for that. He doesn’t seem to be classified under “great australians”. Id hope Donald Bradman would get a seat before him.

Okay I’m gonna start deleting off topic comments.

On Corio, Little River being split in two by the Wyndham/Greater Geelong LGA boundary is a case where LGA boundaries don’t really line up with communities of interest, although as noted the number of voters involved is small. (This split actually became a real problem during Covid – the common-sense decision was eventually reached to consider all of the Little River postcode as regional for Covid purposes, but it took a long time).

I’m assuming that next time Victoria gets a new seat (which I expect it will in the next couple of redistribution cycles) it will be in the outer southwest of Melbourne.

@BT i thought it would be based probably around sunbury and the macedone ranges