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https://vic.liberal.org.au/team/darren-buller
No question that Labor will retain the seat but: does it have the potential to become marginal (within 5%) on paper this year?
Suburban seats have been swinging hard against the Labor Party, though the Liberal Party’s choice of candidate being a former Family First member might not wash over well.
I wish the Greens would put more effort into this seat as I believe they could quite easily, with a proactive campaign, shift votes away from Marles given his lacklustre public presence. A 10% shift in the vote going from Labor to the Greens based on the last election results, would be enough for them to make the TPP which that in itself would be huge (noting of course the Liberals performed particularly dismally in 2022 and will likely rebound)
I’m not sure Corio fits that pattern, though. I wouldn’t describe it as outer suburban, moreso the centre of a separate city. Corangamite fits that pattern better now. The graph in this post shows that the current boundaries of Corio were just 4.7% better for Labor than Victoria in 2004 and 3.1% better in 2007, but 6.8% in 2019 and 7.7% in 2022. It’s becoming more favourable for Labor. And yeah Victoria is looking bad this year but I’m not sure it’s the best fit for that trend.